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02/10/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Avalanche recently put their longest skid of the season behind them and will try to close out a four-game homestand with another victory when they face the Carolina Hurricanes tonight at Pepsi Center.
The Avalanche had lost five straight (0-4-1) before busting out of the slump with Tuesday's 5-2 win over Chicago. Colorado needs all the wins it can get, as it enters tonight as the 12th seed in the Western Conference playoff race and just three points out of a postseason spot.
David Jones scored twice for Colorado as it took down the slumping Blackhawks on Tuesday. The victory pushed the Avalanche's record at home to 15-13-1, and after tonight's homestand finale, Colorado will play four straight and six of its next seven on the road.
Kyle Quincey, Peter Mueller and Gabriel Landeskog each added a goal for the Avs on Tuesday, while Jean-Sebastien Giguere gave up just two goals on 31 shots. The score was tied at 2-2 after 40 minutes, but Landeskog's tally put the Avalanche up for good just 38 seconds into the third period.
"Honestly, when we play teams like Chicago and Vancouver, we seem to respect them more," said Colorado center Paul Stastny, who had two assists in the game. "We move the puck quicker, we may give up a few more transitions, but we also get more chances. And when Giguere plays like he did tonight, we are fine."
Injured Avs forward Matt Duchene has been working on skating drills in recent days, but it's still unclear when the 21-year-old will be able to return to action. Duchene, who has 12 goals and 12 assists in 39 games this year, hasn't played since suffering a knee injury against Phoenix on Dec. 29.
While Colorado is knocking on the door in the Western Conference playoff race, the Hurricanes are last in the East and 10 points out of a postseason berth. Carolina has recorded a point in three straight games (2-0-1), but it's coming off Wednesday's overtime loss in Anaheim.
Corey Perry scored the game-winning goal at 2:14 of the overtime period to lift the Ducks to a 3-2 home win. Carolina held leads of 1-0 and 2-1, but wasn't able to close out Anaheim.
Tuomo Ruutu and Eric Staal lit the lamp and Cam Ward made 31 saves in defeat for the Hurricanes, who squandered a chance to secure their first three-game winning streak since October 12-18.
"Our effort was there," Staal said. "It's just unfortunate things went against us in the overtime."
Tonight marks the second stop on a three-game road trip for the 'Canes, who have a dismal 6-13-7 record as the guest this season. The swing is set to end Monday in Montreal.
Carolina has won three of the last four meetings against the Avalanche, but the Hurricanes are winless in their past nine at Colorado, going 0-6-1 with a pair of ties since. They haven't won there since picking up an overtime win as the Hartford Whalers on Feb. 9. 1996.
<< Giggs to play another year at United
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manchester United manager Sir Alex
Ferguson has revealed that midfielder Ryan Giggs will return to the club for
another season after signing a one-year contract extension.
The 38-year-old Giggs m
<< Magic welcome Hawks to central Florida
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Orlando Magic try to stay hot tonight when they welcome
the Atlanta Hawks to the Amway Center.
This, of course, is the first meeting between these Southeast Division rivals
since Atlanta knocked the Magic out of last
<< Mavs visit Love, Timberwolves
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Timberwolves will have Kevin Love back in the
lineup tonight versus the Dallas Mavericks at Target Center after serving a
two-game suspension for stomping on Houston's Luis Scola during the third
quarter of Satu
<< Pacers battle Grizzlies on Beale Street
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The much-improved Indiana Pacers hope to salvage the back-
end of a brief two-game road trip tonight when they square off with the
Memphis Grizzlies on Beale Street.
Indiana is coming off a 97-98 loss in Atlant
Blackhawks hope to halt fall in San Jose >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The free-falling Chicago Blackhawks will try to end their
longest losing streak in over four years when they continue a lengthy road
trip with tonight's battle against the San Jose Sharks at HP Pavilion.
The Blackhawks are
Stars aim for rare win in Buffalo >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Stars have yet to win the back end when playing
games on consecutive nights. That won't make ending their lengthy losing
streak in Buffalo any easier.
The Stars try to pick up their first road win against the Sa
Celtics head north of the border to face Raptors >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Celtics may have seen their longest winning
streak of the season come to a halt on Thursday. But, a trip north of the
border to face the Toronto Raptors could get them back on track.
Boston saw its five-game win
Lin, Knicks try to stay hot vs. Lakers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The flavor of the day in Gotham faces another tough test on
Friday, when Jeremy Lin and the Knicks play host to Kobe Bryant and the
Lakers at Madison Square Garden.
Lin has exploded from obscurity over the past wee
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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